Project Completion Method Stochastic Project Scheduling...

Manuscript ID: CO/2003/022870 Specialty Area: Cost Schedule Audience: Researchers PROBABILITY OF PROJECT COMPLETION USING STOCHASTIC PROJECT SCHEDULING SIMULATION (SPSS) Dong-Eun Lee1 ABSTRACT This paper introduces a software, Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation (SPSS), developed to measure the probability to complete a project in a certain time specified by the user. To deliver a project by a completion date committed to in a contract, a number of activities need to be carried out. The time that an entire project takes to complete and the activities that determine total project duration are always questionable because of the randomness and stochastic nature of the activities’ durations. Predicting a project completion probability†¦show more content†¦It means PERT assumes that the duration of each activity is represented by a random variable with a known probability density function. PERT extends CPM by introducing the concept of uncertainty in estimating activ ity durations. â€Å"PERT uses expected mean time (te) with standard deviation or variance. The expected mean time (te) of an individual activity is an estimate having an approximate chance of 50 percent success. Three time estimates, i.e., the most likely (m), optimistic (a), and pessimistic (b) durations, are required for each activity.† (Khisty and Mohammadi; 2001). But PERT has also been criticized for systematically underestimating the total project duration. That is why a new methodology is required to increase the accuracy of scheduling project activities. As stated by Crandall (1977), the most reliable method of predicting the total behavior or a network comprised of probabilistic activities is simulation. To complement the PERT system, simulation can be applied to run a network a certain number of times. Complementing the existing approaches with simulation can reduce the errors that might be introduced by the PERT assumptions as studied by MacCrimmon and Ryavec (196 2) and Van Slyke (1963). The Probability Density Function (PDF) of the duration of a construction activity is unknown and needs to be selected depending on the type of project. In general, the variability of the time estimates of an activity can be assumed to follow the Beta distribution.Show MoreRelatedProject Scheduling By Simulation Modelling Technique1088 Words   |  5 Pages Project Scheduling by Simulation Modelling Technique Ramkumar Harikrishnakumar Wichita State University Abstract In the present scenario of manufacturing, agile manufacturing calls for flexibility in the global market which involves rapid changes. Flexible manufacturing technology such as agent manufacturing plays a vital role to achieve agility in the system. 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